The Science On a Sphere dataset, titled “Human Climate Niche – 2020 and 2070,” presents a compelling visualization of how the areas suitable for human habitation, based on climate conditions, are expected to change over the next five decades. This dataset, added to the catalog on July 21, 2020, offers a unique perspective on the impact of climate change on human living conditions.
The Current and Future Human Climate Niche
The human climate niche refers to regions on Earth where humans have historically resided, primarily due to favorable climate conditions related to temperature and precipitation. For the past 6,000 years, humans have mostly inhabited areas with the same climate conditions as today. This niche, with an optimal mean annual temperature of around 52 °F to 59 °F (approximately 11 °C to 15 °C), is also crucial for crop and livestock production.
However, as the climate changes, the areas that fit within this human climate niche are also expected to shift. The dataset projects the future human climate niche in 2070 based on the RCP 8.5 climate projection scenario. It includes a layer showing areas where the mean annual temperature exceeds 84 °F (29 °C). Currently, only 0.8% of the global land surface exceeds this temperature, but by 2070, it’s projected to cover 19% of the global land, affecting an estimated 3.5 billion people.
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Population Movement and Climate Adaptation
Researchers involved in developing this dataset highlight a significant concern: the human climate niche is projected to move towards higher latitudes in unprecedented ways over the coming decades. Simultaneously, populations are expected to expand predominantly at lower latitudes, amplifying the mismatch between human distribution and climate. They estimate that about 30% of the projected global population would need to relocate to continue living within the human climate niche as they do now. Moreover, each degree of temperature rise above the current baseline could leave approximately one billion people outside the temperature niche, absent migration, under the socioeconomic SSP3 scenario.
Key Features of the Dataset
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- The dataset visualizes areas more or less suitable for human habitation, with green areas being more suitable and red areas less so.
- The 2070 projection is based on the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario.
- An additional layer shows areas with mean annual temperatures warmer than 84 °F (29 °C).
- The dataset is a collaboration between several universities, including Nanjing University, Wageningen University, Aarhus University, University of Exeter, and Washington State University
This dataset underscores the critical need for global climate action and adaptation strategies to address the impending shifts in the human climate niche. As the planet warms, the challenge of ensuring suitable living conditions for billions of people becomes increasingly urgent, necessitating a reevaluation of our approach to urban planning, agriculture, and overall sustainability.