As the world gears up for the COP28 climate summit starting on November 30, 2023, in Dubai, a mix of contentious issues and controversial revelations are setting the stage for what promises to be a pivotal moment in global climate discussions.
Record Heat and Drought Setting the Backdrop
Following a year marked by extreme weather events, including record heat and drought, the urgency of addressing climate change has never been more apparent. The COP28 summit arrives at a critical juncture, with nations grappling to find common ground on several key issues.
Assessing Progress Towards Paris Agreement Goals
A primary focus of COP28 is the first-ever global stocktake of progress towards the 2015 Paris Agreement’s targets. This assessment aims to evaluate how far the world has come in limiting the global temperature rise to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, with an aspiration towards 1.5C. However, with current efforts falling short, nations are under pressure to agree on a plan that accelerates CO2 emission reductions and boosts green technology investments.
The Fossil Fuel Debate
One of the most contentious topics at COP28 is the future of fossil fuels. While COP26 saw an agreement to phase down coal use, a consensus on phasing out all fossil fuels remains elusive. The United States, European Union, and climate-vulnerable countries are advocating for a commitment to phase out fossil fuels, but opposition from countries like Russia and the Group of 20’s failure to agree on this point at their July summit highlights the deep divisions.
The UAE, hosting COP28, has indicated that the phase-down of fossil fuels is “inevitable.” However, the UAE’s COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, who also heads the state-owned oil and gas company ADNOC, faces scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest. This situation is further complicated by leaked documents suggesting the UAE planned to use COP28 as a platform for oil and gas deals, raising questions about the impartiality of the summit’s leadership.
Embracing New Technologies and Boosting Clean Energy
The summit will also focus on emerging technologies for capturing and storing CO2 emissions. While these technologies are deemed crucial for meeting climate goals, their high cost and limited large-scale use are concerns. Additionally, countries will discuss setting ambitious goals to significantly increase renewable energy capacity and energy savings by 2030, a proposal backed by major economies, including China.
Financing the Climate Fight
A critical aspect of the negotiations is the financing required to combat climate change and its impacts. Developing countries need substantial funding for adaptation and transitioning to clean energy sources. The establishment of a “loss and damage” fund to address climate disaster impacts is also on the agenda, with developing nations advocating for significant financial commitments from wealthier countries.
Side Deals and Private Sector Engagement
Outside the official negotiations, various side deals and initiatives are expected. The UAE plans to launch a voluntary pledge for oil and gas companies to reduce emissions, aiming to involve the fossil fuel industry in the climate fight. Other initiatives include efforts to curb methane emissions and limit private finance for coal plants.
Navigating a Path Forward
As COP28 unfolds, the world will be watching closely to see how these complex and interlinked issues are navigated. The success of the summit will not only be measured by the agreements reached but also by the integrity and impartiality with which these critical discussions are conducted. The revelations about the UAE’s intentions and the ongoing debates over fossil fuels and financing underscore the challenges lying ahead in the global effort to address climate change effectively.